Bayesian survival analysis using a MARS model

A Bayesian multivariate adaptive regression spline fitting approach is used to model univariate and multivariate survival data with censoring. The possible models contain the proportional hazards model as a subclass and automatically detect departures from this. A reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is described to obtain the estimate of the hazard function as well as the survival curve.     

Remote homolog detection using local sequence-structure correlations

Remote homology detection refers to the detection of structural homology in proteins when there is little or no sequence similarity. In this article, we present a remote homolog detection method called SVM-HMMSTR that overcomes the reliance on detectable sequence similarity by transforming the sequences into strings of hidden Markov states that represent local folding motif patterns. These state strings are transformed into fixed-dimension feature vectors for input to a support vector machine. Two sets of features are defined: an order-independent feature set that captures the amino acid and local structure composition; and an order-dependent feature set that captures the sequential ordering of the local structures. Tests using the Structural Classification of Proteins (SCOP) 1.53 data set show that the SVM-HMMSTR gives a significant improvement over several current methods.     

Recent applications of Hidden Markov Models in computational biology

This paper examines recent developments and applications of Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) to various problems in computational biology, including multiple sequence alignment, homology detection, protein sequences classification, and genomic annotation.     

Detecting distant homologs using phylogenetic tree-based HMMs

It is often desired to identify further homologs of a family of biological sequences from the ever-growing sequence databases. Profile hidden Markov models excel at capturing the common statistical features of a group of biological sequences. With these common features, we can search the biological database and find new homologous sequences. Most general profile hidden Markov model methods, however, treat the evolutionary relationships between the sequences in a homologous group in an ad-hoc manner. We hereby introduce a method to incorporate phylogenetic information directly into hidden Markov models, and demonstrate that the resulting model performs better than most of the current multiple sequence-based methods for finding distant homologs.     

Fishing new proteins in the twilight zone of genomes: the test case of outer membrane proteins in Escherichia coli K12, Escherichia coli O157:H7, and other Gram-negative bacteria

We address the problem of clustering the whole protein content of genomes into three different categories-globular, all-alpha, and all-beta membrane proteins-with the aim of fishing new membrane proteins in the pool of nonannotated proteins (twilight zone). The focus is then mainly on outer membrane proteins. This is performed by using an integrated suite of programs (Hunter) specifically developed for predicting the occurrence of signal peptides in proteins of Gram-negative bacteria and the topography of all-alpha and all-beta membrane proteins. Hunter is tested on the well and partially annotated proteins (2160 and 760, respectively) of Escherichia coli K 12 scoring as high as 95.6% in the correct assignment of each chain to the category. Of the remaining 1253 nonannotated sequences, 1099 are predicted globular, 136 are all-alpha, and 18 are all-beta membrane proteins. In Escherichia coli 0157:H7 we filtered 1901 nonannotated proteins. Our analysis classifies 1564 globular chains, 327 inner membrane proteins, and 10 outer membrane proteins. With Hunter, new membrane proteins are added to the list of putative membrane proteins of Gram-negative bacteria. The content of outer membrane proteins per genome (nine are analyzed) ranges from 1.5% to 2.4%, and it is one order of magnitude lower than that of inner membrane proteins. The finding is particularly relevant when it is considered that this is the first large-scale analysis based on validated tools that can predict the content of outer membrane proteins in a genome and can allow cross-comparison of the same protein type between different species.     

Sequence alignments and pair hidden Markov models using evolutionary history

This work presents a novel pairwise statistical alignment method based on an explicit evolutionary model of insertions and deletions (indels). Indel events of any length are possible according to a geometric distribution. The geometric distribution parameter, the indel rate, and the evolutionary time are all maximum likelihood estimated from the sequences being aligned. Probability calculations are done using a pair hidden Markov model (HMM) with transition probabilities calculated from the indel parameters. Equations for the transition probabilities make the pair HMM closely approximate the specified indel model. The method provides an optimal alignment, its likelihood, the likelihood of all possible alignments, and the reliability of individual alignment regions. Human alpha and beta-hemoglobin sequences are aligned, as an illustration of the potential utility of this pair HMM approach.     

Bayesian meta-analysis for longitudinal data models using multivariate mixture priors

We propose a class of longitudinal data models with random effects that generalizes currently used models in two important ways. First, the random-effects model is a flexible mixture of multivariate normals, accommodating population heterogeneity, outliers, and nonlinearity in the regression on subject-specific covariates. Second, the model includes a hierarchical extension to allow for meta-analysis over related studies. The random-effects distributions are decomposed into one part that is common across all related studies (common measure), and one part that is specific to each study and that captures the variability intrinsic between patients within the same study. Both the common measure and the study-specific measures are parameterized as mixture-of-normals models. We carry out inference using reversible jump posterior simulation to allow a random number of terms in the mixtures. The sampler takes advantage of the small number of entertained models. The motivating application is the analysis of two studies carried out by the Cancer and Leukemia Group B (CALGB). In both studies, we record for each patient white blood cell counts (WBC) over time to characterize the toxic effects of treatment. The WBCs are modeled through a nonlinear hierarchical model that gathers the information from both studies.     

Detecting correlation between characters in a comparative analysis with uncertain phylogeny

Abstract.— The importance of accommodating the phylogenetic history of a group when performing a comparative analysis is now widely recognized. The typical approaches either assume the tree is known without error, or they base inferences on a collection of well-supported trees or on a collection of trees generated under a stochastic model of cladogenesis. However, these approaches do not adequately account for the uncertainty of phylogenetic trees in a comparative analysis, especially when data relevant to the phylogeny of a group are available. Here, we develop a method for performing comparative analyses that is based on an extension of Felsenstein's independent contrasts method. Uncertainties in the phylogeny, branch lengths, and other parameters are accommodated by averaging over all possible trees, weighting each by the probability that the tree is correct. We do this in a Bayesian framework and use Markov chain Monte Carlo to perform the high-dimensional summations and integrations required by the analysis. We illustrate the method using comparative characters sampled from Anolis lizards.     

Testing for genetic evidence of population expansion and contraction: an empirical analysis of microsatellite DNA variation using a hierarchical Bayesian model

The role of past climatic change in shaping the distributions of tropical rain forest vertebrates is central to long-standing hypotheses about the legacy of the Quaternary ice ages. One approach to testing such hypotheses is to use genetic data to infer the demographic history of codistributed species. Population genetic theory that relates the structure of allelic genealogies to historical changes in effective population size can be used to detect a past history of demographic expansion or contraction. The fruit bats Cynopterus sphinx and C. brachyotis (Chiroptera: Pteropodidae) exhibit markedly different distribution patterns across the Indomalayan region and therefore represent an exemplary species pair to use for such tests. The purpose of this study was to test alternative hypotheses about historical patterns of demographic expansion and contraction in C. sphinx and C. brachyotis using a coalescent-based analysis of microsatellite variation. Specifically, we used a hierarchical Bayesian model based on Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the posterior distribution of genealogical and demographic parameters. The results revealed strong evidence for population contraction in both species. Evidence for a population contraction in C. brachyotis was expected on the basis of biogeographic considerations. However, similar evidence for population contraction in C. sphinx does not support the hypothesis that this species underwent a pronounced range expansion during the late Quaternary. Genetic evidence for population decline may reflect the consequences of habitat destruction on a more recent time scale.     

Retention of antigen on follicular dendritic cells and B lymphocytes through complement-mediated multivalent ligand-receptor interactions: theory and application to HIV treatment

In HIV-infected patients, large quantities of HIV are associated with follicular dendritic cells (FDCs) in lymphoid tissue. During antiretroviral therapy, most of this virus disappears after six months of treatment, suggesting that FDC-associated virus has little influence on the eventual outcome of long-term therapy. However, a recent theoretical study using a stochastic model for the interaction of HIV with FDCs indicated that some virus may be retained on FDCs for years, where it can potentially reignite infection if treatment is interrupted. In that study, an approximate expression was used to estimate the time an individual virion remains on FDCs during therapy. Here, we determine the conditions under which this approximation is valid, and we develop expressions for the time a virion spends in any bound state and for the effect of rebinding on retention. We find that rebinding, which is influenced by diffusion, may play a major role in retention of HIV on FDCs. We also consider the possibility that HIV is retained on B cells during therapy, which like FDCs also interact with HIV. We find that virus associated with B cells is unlikely to persist during therapy.